November 24, 2016

TeslaModel32

A Morgan Stanley analyst known for his favourable coverage of Tesla, Adam Jonas is now saying that we won’t see the Model 3 until the very end of 2018. Now, this may be bad news for all the reservation holders and hopeful buyers, but keep in mind, it is purely Jonas’ forecast.

The Tesla Cheerleader speaks

The New York Times calls him a Tesla Cheerleader: Jonas is a Morgan Stanley analyst specifically assigned to cover Tesla, and he has been, for the most part, very favourable towards the company.

As of late, however, Jonas has taken a more cautious approach with his coverage – especially when it concerns Tesla’s stock ratings – and now, he warns that Tesla’s highly anticipated electric vehicle, the Model 3, could be delayed by over a year.

Tesla’s official target is 2017. Elon Musk has reiterated that the Model 3 will enter production midyear next year and the volume production for the Model 3 would start at the end of 2017. However, according to Jonas, Morgan Stanley predicts the launch date is going to be delayed by over a year and the total number of sedans produced would be significantly fewer than Musk’s forecast:

We continue to forecast a Model 3 launch at the very end of 2018 (more than 1 year later than company target) with 60k units in 2019 and 130k units in 2020.

Compared to 400,000 Model 3 examples that Musk thinks the company will produce in 2018, Jonas’ figure of 60,000 is just a fraction of the official estimate. And Jonas isn’t even talking about 2018 – he is talking about 2019!

How reliable is Jonas anyway?

The short answer is we simply do not know. Although he boasts a good track record on Tesla in general, his performance hasn’t exactly been stellar the last few months. Statistically speaking, his success rate is below 50 percent, and now he is ranked 624th out of 4,240 analysts.

However, it is worth noting that Jonas is not the only analyst predicting that the production of Tesla’s Model 3 will be delayed significantly. Whether or not Tesla’s target of delivering at least some Model 3 examples by the end of next year will be met remains to be seen and in all honesty, will remain to be seen until the man himself says otherwise.

Whether or not Tesla’s target of delivering at least some Model 3 examples by the end of next year will be met remains to be seen and in all honesty, will remain to be seen until the man himself says otherwise.

Leave a comment